how great is chipotle? they whip you out of there, guacamole for an extra buck. man is that good fuzz. "morning joe" starts right now. blockbuster presidential debate in denver. the mile-high matchup, the upender in denver, the thrilla between chocolate and vanilla. >> zingers. >> zingers. >> zingers. because americans need to know that their leader has a well-honed sense of zing. on day one, our new president must be able to face iran's leader and ask him if the place where he bought that shirt also has a men's department. then -- then maybe some snaps. yo, mahmoud so fhat, had he gets

around an embargo, he gets around an embargo. >> welcome to "morning joe." it's wednesday, october 3rd. great to have you here. with us on set in washington, d.c., political editor and white house correspondent for "the huffington post," sam stein, contributor to "newsweek" and "the daily beast," mark mckinnon and executive editor of bloomburg news, the nostradamus of major league baseball, al hunt! mike barnicle is in new york along with tv's own willie geist. let's set this up. april 7th. 2011? >> yes. >> alfred hunt. i don't know if it's alfred. >> albert. >> albert hunt comes on this show and predicts what? >> the washington nationals are going to the world series. that's the good news. the bad news i said 2013. >> right. >> a little ahead of schedule.

>> but they this year proved me wrong by a year, but you know something? most of the people on the show, particularly mr. stein, condescending, they had him in there since 1933. >> i kept my mouth shut. >> you did, joe. you were polite, as always. >> as a red sox fan, it's a damn good thing i did. sam stein -- >> yes. >> -- an ugly year. an ugly year for the red sox. >> yeah, it wasn't our best year. >> mike barnicle, ugly, baby. >> they can't even beat the yankees. >> we're glad the season is over. you put up your shutters in mid-june. >> june 15th, i put the storm windows on, winter arrived. but joe, today, we can all hold out hope, daisuke is on the mound against the yankees. if he can beat the yankees, the yankees would be forced into a playoff with the orioles tomorrow. daisuke! >> yeah. don't hold your breath.

all right. we've got a lot to talk about. of course, the first presidential debates now just a matter of hours away. i think it's going to be a great one. we also have new battleground polls released. just minutes ago that show where the races are standing in the key states. ohio, virginia and florida. let's go to the nbc/"wall street journal" poll and the marist poll. in ohio, let's look at these numbers. president obama still comfortably ahead. in fact, he's picked up a point. he's at 51%. mitt romney is at 43%. both campaigns think this one is getting more difficult by the moment for mitt romney to win. however -- and this is where it gets fascinating -- in virginia, the president's lead has shrunk to just two points, within the margin of error. last month president obama led by five points there. in florida, mitt romney has closed the gap as well. he's now statistically tied in the state of florida.

it is a one-point lead. 47%-46%. al hunt, it is fascinating. ohio seems to be on its own as far as the swing states go. but we could show other swing state polls in colorado, in nevada, in north carolina. these states are really getting tight, to such a degree that a great performance by romney tonight could change the dynamic. >> conceivably, but i don't think it's quite that close yet. i think you certainly see it, as you point out, in florida and virginia. you don't see it in ohio. wisconsin it looks like it's actually widening. iowa, it's four to six. and the problem by taking michigan and pennsylvania off the table, which really the romney people have done despite his appearance in pennsylvania, you have to almost run that table. >> by the way, we're showing iowa right now, an eight-point spread. north carolina, also within the margin of error. these are -- and then you have

colorado, a five-point spread. and you've done this, nevada, a two-point spread. some of these races are bunching up, mark mckinnon, but you've run a campaign before. no republican's ever won without ohio. if mitt romney loses ohio, i think most people would put money on that right now. we're still a month out. but if he loses ohio, he's got to do what george w. bush did in 2000 at one point in the evening and run the board. he's got to win all of these swing states. >> he does. the good news, it's headed the right direction. >> he can do it. >> absolutely. in late september, early october 2000, we were down three to five points. everybody said the campaign was completely screwed up. everybody should be fired. george bush went on to win all three debates, run the tables, as you've said, and turn it around and was up three. so it's absolutely possible. and i think this is big stakes. i mean, this is really an opportunity where people -- >> tonight is -- tonight is a huge debate. it really is. >> it's huge for all the obvious

reasons. >> for the obvious reasons. >> but there's a lot of people that have heard a lot about romney and really haven't seen him. >> right. >> tonight they're going to get to see him all alone, mano a mano, and it's a real opportunity for them to get a sense of who he is, what he believes because they've just heard a lot. they haven't seen it. they're going to see it tonight. this is a real opportunity. >> al, you write in the column that the president isn't that great in debates. you talked about sometimes he seems a bit too arrogant. nac in fact, when i see him in debates, i think he's thinking i'm too good to narrow my -- you want me to narrow my answers down to 90 seconds? >> especially incumbent. >> two minutes? i'm really way above this, fellas. >> two things would be game changers tonight. if suddenly barack obama says you're likeable enough, mitt, or if mitt romney says i'll bet you $10,000 that you're wrong on that, you know, it's interesting, joe. i somewhat disagree with mark.

i looked at debates from 1960 on. what is really remarkable is how little they changed things. they have little impact. in 2004 everybody said john kerry got the best of those. >> he was up after the first one. >> no, he was not. i've got the data right here. the only debate where there was any movement beyond two or three points from the start of the debates till the end was 1976. jerry ford moved ten points, and he made one of the great faux p pases in any debate. it doesn't have the effect that people think that it has. i think there are five things that make a difference. conventions matter a lot. the predicate, where you are in the summer beforehand, the kind of campaign you run and the kind of paid media you have. i think debates are probably fifth. >> boy, mike barnicle, i disagree with it. mark mckinnon disagrees with that. do you think debates don't have an impact, or do you think tonight actually could if mitt romney comes out -- >> i think it will have some impact. >> some impact, but i actually

think that's really when the american people, for the first time, see the two candidates and really start to make their minds up. what do you think? >> you know, first of all, i think there's a consensus view that no matter what polls we're looking at today, it's going to be a jump-ball election three or four weeks from now. it's going to be within two or three points. it's that close out in the country. i think tonight's debate, though, matters a great -- >> let me stop you there, mike. so you do think it's still going to be a jump ball because obviously mitt romney's had a horrific september. his own people say, man, what a horrible month. but we still have a long way to go here. you think it's still going to be a jump ball? >> yes, i do. i do. because of two elements that polls can't really get to, the level of anxiety in this country about daily life and about the immediate future of our economy, and the level of disappointment in barack obama held by obama supporters who will vote for him, but they are still disappointed in him. so those two things alone, i

think, are going to result in a jump-ball election. but to the debate tonight, i do think it's going to be important for mitt romney. the reason i think it's going to be important for mitt romney is i think very few of us have an understanding of the ripple effect of the 47% comment that has been reported and reported and reported out there in the country. this is going to be the first time that many americans, most americans, actually, are going to see mitt romney on a stage with the president of the united states, and they're going to have to figure out, well, does he understand us? he said 47% of us, you know, are basically bust-outs. does he really understand my life? this is going to be their shot at getting a peek at that. for that reason and that reason alone, i think this debate is very important for mitt romney. >> can i pick -- >> and i think the debates -- i personally think debates are so great for candidates because they can talk without the filter of all of us saying what this means or what that means.

and mitt romney, you know, you look at mitt romney, he's been portrayed as this 47% guy, and a lot of faux pases that he's made. this is his chance to talk to the american people straight. i remember 1980 -- and i bring this up to you, sam, because you weren't even born in 1980. >> i was not, yeah. >> but ronald reagan, people forget, before the debate, ronald reagan was painted as this looney, right-wing fanatic that would start world war iii, dr. strangelove, and it was the debate that stuck a needle in that balloon. >> i remember it well. >> not even born yet. i mean, this is romney's chance. >> sure. >> to connect with the american people. >> to pick up on mike's point, fascinating number from the poll is this. 51% of people who said they had heard or read something about romney in the last couple weeks said what they had heard or read made them think more negatively about him. more positively, that number was

48%. they've heard him going into this debate. this provides them a chance to say, listen, that guy you saw in the video, that's not me. i'm a different type of person. he can reset in that sense. i'm sort of with al on this. i spent a lot of time over the past week watching all of romney's debates from 2002. i watched every single debate. there were five of them. i read hundreds of clips in 2002. he was against a democrat. >> you really should get a life. >> i know, it's pathetic. >> i was going to say, and what makes it worse is how young he is. dude, if i were your age, i might be looking at c-span repeats. >> if i'm going to present myself as pathetic as i am, i'll make this point. >> make it fast. you're too much of a loser. >> he didn't do that exception a job. he just managed to -- he managed to eke it out in the end -- >> what, romney? >> yeah, he had a few good debates at the end and ended up winning as being portrayed as the victim. >> let me go to mike really

quickly because, mike, i remember in realtime when we were looking at romney's debates. we've been very critical of romney from time to time when he deserved criticism. but i remember time and time again in the republican debates, you and me both saying, that guy won it. and he won it going away. and it wasn't just because a lot of people on the stage were drooling and couldn't remember their last names. mitt romney affirmatively won a lot of those debates, and he did a pretty damn good job. >> first of all, joe, sam, call comcast cable and get the baseball package, will you? >> i have the baseball package. >> all right. >> i just would rather watch the 2002 gubernatorial debates. >> against shannon o'brien in massachusetts. mitt romney, oddly enough, is most comfortable -- most comfortable in a debate setting. >> i think he is. >> he's more comfortable in a debate setting than he is at chipotle as, you know, as we saw

yesterday. or as you see almost every day. it's his natural format. he's very good at it. >> and he's worked on it. >> he has. >> he's a lot better than he was in 2008. >> no doubt about it. yeah. and by the way, those debates, al, did make a difference for some people. >> let me go back to 1980 because i covered that debate and wrote a book on that campaign. i went back the other day and i did, sam, re-read the 1980 -- >> someone make fun of al, then. geez. >> listen, he's, like, our age. he has no excuse. >> one week before the election, they had not had any debates. >> unbelievable stakes. >> going into it, they were about even. ronald reagan lost most of that debate. he was on the defensive. jimmy carter was attacking him. and then he had this positively brilliant close about are you better off? and he did it so well. peter hart did a bunch of focus groups before and after. clearly reagan had a lower threshold. he had to prove to people he was acceptable.

>> that's what mitt -- you're describing mitt romney. you're describing mitt romney because voters -- >> voters don't have the kind of negatives. he did not have 51% of people having an unfavorable view. secondly, you could say mitt romney is as good a debater all you want. gipper against mitt romney when it comes to charm, people saying i want to have this guy on television for four years, it's no contest. >> willie, following up on what mike barnicle said, the one thing mitt romney has going for him is who he is running against. there are a lot of republicans that voted for barack obama that are disappointed. there are a lot of independents that voted for obama who are disappointed. there are a lot of conservatives who don't want to vote for them this year. they just don't. that we've seen over the past month, a lot of bumbling inside the romney camp. if he turns that corner, just like reagan did in 1980, mitt

romney can give all of these voters an excuse to vote for him, right? >> yeah, we talked about this yesterday on the show. if he can go in -- that's why i worry about all this talk about zingers, just stylistically. don't be someone you're not. don't come in with canned jokes. be who you are, which is the line he delivered, i thought, well in his convention speech where he said, i can't heal the earth. i'm not going to part the seas, whatever he said. i just want to help you and your family. i'm not fancy, i'm not exciting. i want this job because i can do a better job healing the economy, not the earth, healing the economy than he has done for the last 3 1/2 years. if he can do that, be confident, don't try to be slick or funny, it's not who you are, just be mitt romney, he'll have a good night. >> i think he'll have a good night. i'll tell you this also, mark mckinnon. we're going to hear about the 47% from barack obama tonight. he'll bring that up. i also think mitt romney will bring this up in the debate. something that was spoken yesterday in charlotte, north carolina, by our dear friend joe

biden. roll it. >> the romney/ryan tax plan will raise taxes on middle-class families with a child, one or more children, by an additional $2,000 a year. how -- all kidding aside, with all the boos, look, guys, this is deadly earnest, man. this is deadly earnest! how they can justify, how they can justify raising taxes on the middle class that's been buried the last four years, how in lord's name can they justify? >> god bless him. >> mark mckinnon -- i love him. mike, we love him. we love him! has anybody not told him, they've been in the white house for the past four years? buried? the middle class has been buried

over the past four years. >> joe, i am being deadly earnest now, man. deadly earnest. okay? on how anybody -- how anybody can attempt to bury the vice president is beyond me. >> i'm not trying to bury him. i got a good laugh out of it. mark mckinnon, you think we may hear the middle class has been buried over the past four years? >> 47%, especially tonight. >> and it's fresh. >> it's fresh, it's new, it's relevant. the one other thing i'd mention, joe, just look at the general mood of the country again, which is still very difficult. and the right track/wrong track. the wrong-track number is still 53%. 53% of the country still thinks we're headed in the wrong direction. and in theory, most of those should be up for grabs for romney. i mean, if people think it's headed in the wrong direction, they think the guy in charge is probably responsible. so romney's got an opportunity for at least that threshold. >> i was looking at the nbc/"wall street journal" poll. this number jumped out at me. >> by the way, also, mike barnicle, if you were here, i think you'd have a tear coming

out of the corner of your left eye. poor sam stein, in a 6:00 a.m. show, has written down, like, three pages of very neat single-spaced notes. it makes me sad. >> go home, sam. >> it makes me sad for the future generation. sam, we need to get you together with john heilemann. >> but that 2002 debate was fascinating. i can see why he's writing those numbers. >> go ahead, sam. come on. >> how about those cross-tabs? >> go ahead. go ahead. what do you got there? >> i've got to compose myself. this is interesting. 57% -- i can't even speak -- 57% of respondents said the country is moving in the right direction, 39% said in the wrong direction. this is just two weeks ago. i honestly don't get why all of a sudden people are so optimistic about the economy. it happened in a flash. and people are just -- >> they don't care about where it is. they care about where it's headed. >> the bill clinton speech. >> i think, yeah, because

certainly the metrics haven't changed much. things haven't gotten a great deal better. but i think bill clinton was able to set a predicate and able to say things that barack obama couldn't say. he inherited a mess and he's making it better. he could say i inherited a mess, he couldn't say i'm headaching it b making it better. >> we're saying how mitt romney could win the election if he does well in the debates and turns things around. but the right track/wrong track numbers, i think you would agree with me, the fact that americans, 57% of americans think the economy is getting better, the right track/wrong track is tightening up. it was in the low 30s, now it's at 40%. you look at states like ohio where right track/wrong track is even more positive than that, that does help the president a great deal. >> it does, and that is a pretty remarkable shift in the numbers, as sam just pointed out. and the key is not how people think the economy is today but where they think it's going. and at 57% think it's headed in the right direction, that argues

against what i was just saying, which is 57% will say we don't want to change horses. >> if it keeps going in this same direction, no doubt about it. so willie geist, 160-second game, is that tonight or tomorrow night? >> tonight. >> so we're at the end of the season tonight, right? >> yeah, last game of the season. the yankees pulled one off in the 12th inning last night. so they're still a game up in the division. >> but hold it. beat the red sox. i wouldn't brag about that. >> that's true. and we've got daisuke going tonight. thank you for daisuke. and by the way, there's a great race out west where the a's have come all the way back and now tied the division with the rangers. they were 13 games out a couple months ago. last night they tied the division with the rangers. great story in oakland. >> i'll tell you, and the story down here, i mean, it's just -- it is hard to imagine that -- i'm going to call them the senators -- the washington senators and the baltimore orioles. it is hard to believe -- >> it's great.

>> -- that just in this market, what has happened with those two clubs. it's just -- it's an unbelievable story, willie, isn't it? >> it's incredible. and as a yankee fan, i've been watching the orioles closely for a couple months, and they are relentless. they don't have a big payroll. they don't have the best players, but they just keep coming. they win in extra innings. they're tough. they've got a great manager. so watch out for them in the playoffs. they may not win the division, but in the wild card. >> joe, we should remember to ask chuck todd when he's on later today with us how that dodger deal worked out for them. because the dodgers were eliminated last night. >> you know, that was really, mike, that was -- and i'm dead serious -- dumping that -- those players and their 260-plus million, that was the highlight of the red sox season. >> that's exactly right. >> i mean, unlike the yankees, we actually -- we have a future. we're not going to have to be writing massive checks. >> our future is the immediate one where we're going to the world series, but go on. go ahead. >> are you really? >> what does that mean? >> are you really?

okay. we'll see if you get to the world series. >> okay. i look forward to it. >> you're not going to the world series. >> you're not going. look at willie getting all uppity with his yankee talk. >> we have no future? we have no future? we have a quarter of a billion-dollar payroll. we always have a future. that's the beauty of the new york yankees. >> al. >> i'd like went to see the cl eastwood movie. >> was it good? >> okay. >> better than the convention speech? >> better. the washington nationals are that movie. they're the scouts, the guys on the ground and, of course, the oakland a's were "moneyball." two different approaches. both worked pretty darn well. it's a really interesting contrast. >> no doubt about it. all right. we've got peter gammons coming up who is going to be really exciting. also, we have former national security adviser dr. brzezinski, he's going to be with us on set with his daughter, mika.

also, "the washington post's" bob woodward. and he's got some fascinating information about the budget negotiations. i think he's bringing some tapes. also, deputy campaign manager for president obama, stephanie cutter's going to be with us. and as i said, as well as the great peter gammons. up next, we've got mike allen with the top stories in the "politico playbook." we've got dueling videos. the right has their own video of president obama. the left has a paul ryan video. it's a whole lot of fun. i'm sure you'll love it. first here's bill karins. he's got a check on the forecast. bill. >> morning, joe. maybe you noticed yourself down in d.c., too, the fog, a big issue this morning up and down the big cities from new york city all the way down through philadelphia, baltimore and d.c. give yourself some extra time. i'm sure we're going to have airport delays as the airports get going this morning. some people are saying it's the worst fog they've seen in a long time throughout this region. it will lift by 9:00 or 10:00 a.m.

so the heart of it is right now. we will see a few showers during the day but not like yesterday where it really was a rainout in a few spots. temperatures will be very warm and humid. we are going to see a chance of showers in new york city as we go through thursday and then again over the weekend. it's over the weekend that the temperatures drop on the east coast including washington, d.c., and boston with highs in the 50s and 60s. right now all that cool air is located in montana. i'm showing you this because that white on the map is snow in montana. this is the sign of things to come. the cool, cold air coming down from billings. it will arrive tomorrow. minneapolis and kansas city. so enjoy today is what i'm telling you. it's going to be the warmest day probably till next spring for many areas of the northern plains. chicago, that cool air will arrive for you as we go throughout your friday. so big changes under way. let's see the last -- that's good, mike. good throw for the last day of the baseball season. i like that. maybe you could pitch tonight instead of daisuke. you're watching "morning joe" foggy start, everyone. drive carefully. we're brewed by starbucks.

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♪ hey, it's time to take a look now at the "morning papers." we start with the "kansas city star." home sales are up 20% in kansas city. that reflects a national trend of a slowly improving housing market. nationwide home prices rose from 4% to 6% in august from 2011, the biggest year-over-year change since 2006. that's great news because the housing market goes up from the ground up. the economy's going to turn around for the better. the "usa today," willie? >> new analysis from a british head cal journal finds at least 170,000 cases of skin cancer linked to indoor tanning. >> oh, dear lord.

>> wow! >> hey, willie, we've got some anchors we need to warn. >> that is bad news for a lot of people. let's move right along. the results suggest indoor tanning is responsible for about 5% of non-melanoma skin cancers, the most commonly diagnosed cancer in the u.s. >> i don't know what you guys are laughing about. "the wall street journal," for the first time since 2008, beer sales are on the rise. shipments rose nearly 2% in the first eight months of 2012. draft beer sales are up 12%. willie, i think it's cute, sam stein said "thank god" because, of course, there's nothing like cracking open a non-alcoholic beer while you're looking at old c-span tapes. >> got to do it. the ooch'doul's.

speaking of sad stories, let's go to politico for something that makes me tired. >> the chief white house correspondent is mike allen with a look inside the "playbook." >> good debate morning. >> we've got dueling videos. let's work through these and you can help us explain a little bit. last night conservative news outlet the daily caller released a video, posted on the website featuring then-senator barack obama speaking to a group of african-american religious leaders. this was during the campaign of 2007. some outlets billing it as a bombshell including the drudge report labelling it "obama's other race speech." the president was critical among other things of the government's response to hurricane katrina. >> when hurricane andrew struck in florida, people said, look at this devastation. we don't expect you to come up with your own money. here. here's the money to rebuild. we're not going to wait for you to scratch it together. because you're part of the american family.

what's happening down in new orleans? where's your dollar? where's your stafford act money? it makes no sense. it tells me the bullet hasn't been taken out. it tells me that somehow the people down in new orleans, they don't care about as much. >> so at the same time yesterday, there was another video posted on the huffington post showing congressman paul ryan speaking in november of 2011 about ten months ago about a moral tipping point in the united states. that was six months before mitt romney's 47% remarks. >> before too long, we could become a society we were never, ever intended to be. we could become a society where the net majority of americans are takers, not makers. today, 70% of americans get more benefits from the federal government in dollar value than they pay back in taxes. so you could argue that we're already past that tipping point.

the good news is, survey after survey, poll after poll, still shows that we are a center-right 70/30 country. 70% of americans want the american dream. they believe in the american idea. only 30% want the welfare state. what that tells us is at least half of those people who are currently in that category are there not of their wish or their will. >> all right, mike. let's take these one at a time. first, the president obama video from the daily caller. that speech was covered by most networks. but the daily caller argues that the networks didn't cover it in its entirety including the most racially charged portions which then were highlighted last night. what do you make of it? >> what's jarring about this tape is this isn't either tone or language or content we're used to hearing from president obama. what we see there is him clearly playing to the crowd. mark mckinnon will tell you his

president, george w. bush, when he used to go down south, got a notable additional twang in his voice when he was, as he called it, in a place where people have more hats than ties, you could hear the difference in his voice. a lot of politicians do this. we've seen secretary clinton do this. so that's what's jarring about this video. it's not going to change anybody's mind about president obama. and as you point out, it was widely covered at the time. he was an announced presidential candidate. so there was nothing secret about this on-camera, open-press event. >> but mike, did the media fail to cover it completely? did it leave out parts that would have been harmful to president obama, which is the argument made by the daily caller? >> yeah, i think in any speech like this, you're going to do it selectively. and apparently, then-senator obama departed notably from his text, maybe a lot of the stories were done. but what we're seeing, willie,

here is a video that's designed to play to the republican base, to remind them that whatever they think about mitt romney, he's better than barack obama, if you're a hard-right conservative republican. so this is to get them to stick with their choice and to turn out. >> and then quickly on the paul ryan video. what do you make of that? he says only 70% of americans want the american dream. the other 30% want the welfare state. >> willie, if you listen to the whole tape, what i took away from it is that mitt romney would be a lot better off if this is the w expressed his thought, because paul ryan goes on there to say that a lot of these people who are receiving government benefits are down on their luck, out of a job, in school. that's the part that mitt romney left out and that has really hurt him, as we were talking earlier. and that's why we expect president obama to come back to the 47% figure again and again in tonight's debate. >> we're going to see that tonight for sure. mike allen, look forward to

talking to you about it tomorrow morning. thanks so much, mike. >> thank you for your coverage. coming up, one game left in the major league season. a lot of question marks still in the playoff picture. who better to ask? we woke him up early. our friend peter gammons joins us next on "morning joe." ♪ [ construction sounds ] ♪ [ watch ticking ] [ engine revs ] come in. ♪ got the coffee. that was fast. we're outta here. ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ this reduced sodium soup says it may help lower cholesterol, how does it work?

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welcome back to "morning joe." 6:38 in the morning. joining us now to talk baseball on this, the last day of the regular season, mlb network baseball analyst peter gammons from the gam cam. peter, good morning. >> good morning, willie. >> it's good to see you. you know, we're sorting through this playoff race here. i guess we can start with what they want to talk about in washington where a lot of people are talking about, the nationals and orioles. orioles may not win this division, but what an incredible pair of stories. >> it is. i mean, the fact that washington hasn't had a postseason since 1933 speaks for itself. three franchises in all those years. and the orioles coming -- and they haven't had a winning season since '97. they had the worst record in the american league east last year. and here they go on the final day, they're playing tampa bay tonight. i mean, if they win, the yankees lose, they end up in a tie.

then they have to have a playoff to see who actually wins the division tomorrow. and then move on from there. it's been a fabulous race. i mean, just the idea that baltimore and oakland could seriously be players in the postseason is wonderful. >> and the oakland story really is incredible. they get buried a little bit on the west coast, admittedly, but i guess it's the second lowest payroll in all of baseball, close to the lowest payroll of all in baseball. they come back 13 games out, they catch the rangers last night. how are they doing it? >> well, i mean, what billy bean did going out and finding rookies and identifying players has been remarkable. i mean, since june 2nd, they have the best record in the league. they've hit the most home runs in baseball since the all-star break. they have 4 of their 5 starting pitchers are rookies. their two tops are winning pitchers. the thing about bean's tenure there is not so much about being a movie star, but it's about

being able to evaluate talent. and they've always had to do it on the fly. they've always had to do it with a low payroll. and right now, i mean, they're playing as well as any team in baseball. it would really be a great thing. the only problem is we just hope that they get more than 30,000 people in the ballpark, should they end up going deep into the league championship series. >> hey, peter, we just showed a clip, actually, of the oakland a's including josh reddick, and i'm prone to think why can't the red sox get players like that. we'll move on from that. let's talk about one of the great debates currently going on, i think, in baseball, and that's the american league mvp race. you have a once-in-a-generation player, mike trout, just phenomenally talented, gifted player. cabrera, phenomenally talented, detroit tigers, potential triple crown winner. what do we do here? what do we do? >> well, it's going to end up so

that in the end, cabrera's going to win the mvp because i think there are enough traditional voters to say, okay, triple crown, we haven't had one since carl yastrzemski in '67. it's a remarkable feat. but if you really -- now in a very different time of looking at analytical statistics and start to value defense, do remember yastrzemski was a great defender. he won a gold glove in '67. but trout, he has actually been arguably the best defensive player in the american league. since april 28th when he started, they have the best record in the american league. i mean, if you take his defense and add it on to the offense, he's been the most valuable player. but he won't win it because there's still that battle over the traditional way of looking at statistics and then supposed new-age statistics, which is just a way of trying to judge the value of someone's all-around game. and i think if you judge the all-around game, trout is

probably the -- well, no doubt that he's the best player in the american league. >> peter, we don't know how the playoff picture will shake out, but we know pretty much who's going to be in the playoffs. so we can do a little bit of handicapping. if you were betting out of each league who comes out of the national, who comes out of the american league right now? >> i think that it's the national league is going to be cincinnati or atlanta because of the picture and the way they have their bull pen set up. i think both teams are vulnerable offensively, especially against left-handed pitching. but i do think that their pitching is so good. if i were to bet, i would bet on cincinnati, just because i think their starting pitching is so well rested, and their bull pen has been so well handled by dusty baker. i think the american league is absolutely -- i thought until the 1st of september, i said all along, it will be texas. it will be texas. there's a chance texas will end up second if they lose to the a's this afternoon. i'm still prone now to saying i think the yankees are going to

end up in the world series. >> you hear that? >> if they haven't overused their bull pen, i think they can make it because their lineup is just now starting to get going. >> and even though their average age is 61 years old. it's going to be a great story. >> older than i am. >> it's going to be a great story. >> well, the yankees and a's will be like a father/son game. >> that's exactly right. >> very good, peter. >> that's exactly right. peter gammons in cape cod from the gam cam, peter, thanks so much. we hope to talk to you more throughout the playoffs. >> thanks a lot. >> all right, peter, see you. you can see mlb playoff games live on mlb network. >> bob bowman. >> bob bowman getting it done. we'll be right back with mika's "must-read opinion pages."

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all right. welcome back to "morning joe." at 47 past the hour. >> oh, look who just popped up. >> what? i've been here. i've been here the whole time. >> how was monte carlo? >> i was not in nice. you have to stop the south of france thing. >> she just flew in from the south of france. >> it's been five years. in the five years of doing the show, i have never been to the south of france. >> allegedly. >> that's just not true. she has never been in the south of france, as she said, on a camel. but -- yeah, but you have been there. >> "washington post." it's time now -- oh, that was fun last night. >> you were both up late, i can testify. talking to congressional staffers from both sides of the aisle, bringing them together. it was a great event. >> it was a very civil conversation. >> it was. >> it was nice. >> a great conversation with john ingler and evan bayh.

carl cannon there. we had a debate on whether we were going to have an independent president in the next ten years or so. i think we are. carl cannon also agrees. a bit of a divide there. >> we also had a real consensus about the importance of taking first steps of bringing people together like the congressional staffs and getting them together and then their members together and people actually talking to one another. and that's the first step toward reaching some problem solving. >> thank you for having us. >> yeah. >> it was nice. >> yeah. and as john ingler, republican governor from michigan, suggested, it's not really even about ideology, not meeting in the middle, it's about meeting with people with whom you disagree. >> absolutely. >> vehemently. >> and he had exchanges with bill galston. >> "washington post." first the paper's editorial, "silence of the candidates." now that the campaign has

reached its first debate and, possibly, its final pivotal moment, we hope the candidates will devote more attention to the future, specifically to what they hope to accomplish over the next four years. both candidates portray this election as a stark choice between radically different governing philosophies, and we tend to think that is true. but each has been more eager to scare voters about his opponent's world view than to explain how his own could cope with 21st century problems -- slow economic growth, rising inequality, uncapped entitlement spending, suffocating debt. none of these is inevitable for the nation, but they are the end point of our current path. voters have a right to hear how their leaders would avert these outcomes. great piece. >> it is a great piece. and i hear barack obama and mitt romney talking about how radically different the other side is, and it's just a joke. it is a joke. if you look at the issues that really matter, taming the explosive growth of medicare, the explosive growth of medicaid, saving social

security, cutting national defense. we spend more than the next 17 countries combined. our defense spending is unsustainable. tax reform. we're not hearing that from either side. so when i hear barack obama saying mitt romney's a right-wing radical and mitt romney's saying barack obama is a european socialist, it's a joke because al, there's not, unfortunately, a lot of serious talk about -- and you talk to simpson-bowles about the key issues that are going to bankrupt us, not in the next generation, but over the next decade. >> you're right, joe. and the architecture's out there. we know what we have to do. >> right. >> both sides know what we have to do. both sides have to compromise some. particularly social security's not that hard at all. >> no. >> but no one's talking about it. this is a strange campaign. in some ways people talk about what they want to do 10 or 15 years from now. no one's talking about what we're going to do in the next couple years. usually it's the other way around with politicians.

neither romney nor obama has told people here's how your life will be better if i'm elected president. >> or harder. >> there are some sacrifices, but those sacrifices are supposed to make it better. >> but we talked last night, mark, about candidates and leaders that tell the truth and how the truth works. but yet that doesn't seem -- not necessarily among the presidential candidates, i would say they skirt the hard truths. but there are candidates out there that are afraid to tell the truth as well. >> well, we talked about telling hard truths, and our hope was that given the nature of the challenges that we face right now, which we know are going to take some hard truths, there would be some discussion about that. and both campaigns, i think, largely have been trying to avoid that, playing it safer. and this is the time to have that dialogue. so hopefully we'll see some of that tonight. >> it would be great if one question was asked, in what way would you compromise on your plan if you were elected? >> that's a great question. >> if you look at the massachusetts debates, there were zingers on both sides. i thought the most damning part,

not just for elizabeth warren but also for too many candidates out there, name one republican senator that you'd be able to work with, and she couldn't name one. >> she named richard lugar, but he's leaving. >> she's going to have to fly to indiana. >> that was a great question. >> or drive. not one person that she could work with. and i'm not picking just on her, but that is damning for her. it's damning for a lot of other candidates. >> it's pervasive. >> and it's pervasive, yeah. still ahead -- >> hold on. whatever what? >> no, i'm just saying, that's the problem, is that it might be that some -- most of the republicans are extremely difficult to work with. and vice versa. >> scott brown working with democrats. >> but she can't work with scott brown if she's replacing him. >> no, i'm just saying, scott brown works with democrats. he really does. i'll tell you what. >> watch him. >> salient point. >> all night long. >> wow!

>> look, it goes both ways. >> he locked himself in a room for one month and he comes up with that? >> he's a good boy. still ahead, bob woodward and former national security adviser dr. brzezinski. >> you say that well. [ woman ] ring. ring. progresso.

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that's the best we got? >> al hunt, thank you. >> al, put the hat back on! all right. >> let's go! >> yeah, baby! let's go, senators, right? >> very handsome in that hat. coming up next, pulitzer prize-winning editor of "the washington post," bob woodward.

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for the past week, both mitt romney and president obama, have you noticed this? they've been trying to lower expectations for their debate performance by insisting that they're not great debaters. based on some of their past debates, tomorrow could look like this. >> the -- uh -- >> i -- i don't want to -- >> let me just make a couple of points. my -- here's -- >> i hope they either take off the ad or make it correct. >> look, let's just be clear. >> we hired a lawn company to mow our lawn. >> as i said before -- >> and with my wife, we've, uh -- >> we have -- >> but what -- um, let's see. um -- uh, we could start with his idea to have a lunar colony that would mine minerals from the moon. >> you said that, uh -- let me just make a closing point.

that made no sense whatsoever. >> can you imagine if somebody did that to us? >> uh, uh, uh -- >> no. you know what? >> that was funny. >> look at that. welcome back to "morning joe." sam stein and mark mckinnon are still with us here in washington along with mike barnicle in new york. mike, are you awake? >> i am. i am. i'm right here. >> wake up, mike. joining the table here in d.c., editor of "the washington post," bob woodward, the author of the book "the price of politics." >> bob, you thought that was a mean clip, all the uhs from both candidates. >> yeah, out of context. somebody could do it to anyone. even you. >> they could do it to us every hour. >> no. >> tonight, we have a lot to get to. we're going to be getting to polls. we're going to talk about some fascinating insights in your book. first let's talk about the debate tonight. i'm with you.

we were talking off camera, i think tonight could be fascinating. i think this could be one of the better debates we've seen in a long time. >> yeah. you know, i'm focused on the economy and what the simple fact that the government doesn't have its financial house in order or even close to being in order. it's in disarray. this is kind of the -- i think it's kind of the one issue that is a danger to the security of the country. and to the extent it comes up will be important. >> right. and admiral mullen famously said recently, former chairman of the joint chiefs, that the greatest risk to america's national security in the long run is debt. >> yeah. and you look at the numbers, and you start -- and when i started this project, looking at obama and the republicans trying to manage the economy and work some of these deals, i kind of thought, okay, this is important. and then when you get into the deta

details, it, quite frankly, not to be overly alarmist, but it reminds me of the summer of 2001 when the cia director, george tenet, was running down to the white house saying bin laden's going to attack in the united states. >> okay. let's go ahead, mark. >> bob, let me ask you. you've spent a lot of time looking at this white house. let's just project forward and let's just say theoretically that president obama wins re-election. forecast the next six months after that from what you know of this administration and what might happen. >> well -- >> republican leadership that you're familiar with. >> obviously, you don't know, but he is tuned into his own ambivalences. and in the reporting on this, it's very clear he realizes we face a problem that is not going to go away, that he's got to address. and there are documents that are floating around that i got and

notes of meetings, and you see, for instance, on medicare. he's now campaigning on we're not going to cut medicare. and there are documents where last year he was saying oh, yeah, we have to cut it $250 billion over ten years. >> wait. so you've got a document where barack obama is saying we've got to cut medicare $250 billion, which i think is responsible. but his campaign team is going out there every day saying watch out. we're not going to cut medicare, but mitt romney is. >> yeah. i mean, it's not just his campaign team. it's the president and himself. he says, we're going to reform and strengthen medicare for the long haul the right way by reducing the cost of health care. everyone would agree with that. not by shifting it onto seniors. well, in his own documents, he says, we have to do this. when i talk to him, he realized and said very openly that it's

irresponsible to not address this. >> let's play a clip that you were alluding to. go ahead and roll it. >> all the democrats felt that for democrats to join with republicans in anything that could be painted as a medicare cut when there was a huge difference between democratic and republican positions on medicare generally was bad politics. it's an untenable position to say we're not going to do anything on medicare and medicaid when that's one of the biggest drivers of our budget deficit. >> wow! all right. >> so that was a portion of what the president said when bob asked him about a meeting on medicare that he had with harry reid, and then the speaker of the house, nancy pelosi. he's saying we've got to cut medicare. we've got to be responsible. democrats are saying no, we can't do that. and now the president, after

telling boehner he would do that, is going out on the campaign trail saying those bad republicans want to cut medicare. by the way, this isn't about this election. this is about what happens after this election. how does this president -- >> exactly. >> -- after saying to the republicans, i'm going to cut medicare, which, again, is a responsible thing to do, the only thing you can do if you want to save the program, how can this president then get re-elected and go back to boehner and go, you know what? i said i'd cut medicare, and then i demagogued it and attacked you guys on the campaign. >> well, in his own words, he said it's bad politics to not draw a distinction. now, there is somewhat of a distinction, in fairness, but he is proposing cutting medicare. and anyone -- this is not a economists from the left or the right. this is beyond politics. this is arithmetic, as bill clinton said. >> basic math. >> it's unsustainable. you've got to do something about

it. >> it's about telling the truth. go ahead, sam. >> i think this was supported in your book, which is that at the time of that grand bargain, there was a lot of concern among democrats that paul ryan would come out with this budget, and it was a great issue to campaign on. they were demagoguing it. what people don't know about the sequester. the cuts, oh, my god, medicare cuts are in the sequester. there's going to be hundreds of billions of dollars worth of medicare cuts over ten years. i think the distinction here between what obama is saying and what he's willing to do privately is he wants those cuts primarily to be on the supplier side and not the beneficiary side. however, in talks with boehner, he did say he'd raise the beneficiary age, which is a beneficiary cut. >> it's a little boring. i'll read the document in which the president says to boehner, which he sent down from the white house last year, saying we will make beneficiary cuts. i asked the president about this

in the interview, and he said there will be some beneficiary cuts. so, you know, there is a difference, but it's -- you know, this is the agony in all of this. why aren't we talking about it in the presidential campaign? why aren't we -- why are we having these sound bites and this denial? why don't we get down and talk about the real -- hopefully tonight they will. >> it should be fascinating tonight. i can't imagine that they get around being asked directly about specifics. and i can't imagine them getting around being asked to tell the truth. >> you know, let us hope, though, mark mckinnon that tonight, obviously a lot of people that are -- that run these debates, most people in the media watch this show in the morning. let's hope they're listening to bob right now. i'm sure they are. i'm sure they've read bob's book and will ask the president. how is it that you propose all

ofhings to john boehner and to the republicans, and then you pull back because nancy pelosi and harry reid say don't do it, and now you're attacking republicans for proposing exactly what you proposed to them, and bob woodward has in a document! >> well, i have a healthy suspicion the moderator's probably read bob's book. and he's a great moderator. that's why i think this debate will be fascinating because i think there are some really good questions that you've just raised that will be raised tonight. >> and by the way, you can also ask mitt romney, mike barnicle, why is it that you're not proposing any reform for medicare and social security? >> you know, this discussion is actually kind of fascinating when you listen to it because it gets to, i think, one of the larger points about this election. if you put your ear to the ground, not in washington, not to politicians or other journalists, if you put your ear to the ground, you get the sense that this election really is about the american people asking one question of both candidates,

where are you going to take us, and how much is it going to cost? and that's what this whole medicare issue, the spending issue, 12 years worth of war that we've been enduring here, the level of anxiety that's out there in the country. all of these issues that we've been talking about, some of them right here, are encapsulated in that question. and a lot of people have that question at the forefront of their minds as they watch this debate tonight. >> the political dynamic is such that anyone who comes out, whether it's obama or romney, and says i'm going to do some painful things, you walk the road walter mondale walked in 1984 by telling the truth and saying taxes have to go up. >> isn't that what it all comes down to? the question is really about taxes, right? in obama's world, if you can give him some increased tax revenues, then he's willing to do things on medicare and social security. he won't go as far as republicans want him to, but he

is. and in mitt romney's world, he wants to not raise taxes at all. >> hold on a second. let me just say, as a republican -- >> and lower them. >> -- don't even talk to me about raising taxes until i know you're not going to lynch me with, you know, medicare, you know, me wanting to throw granny out in the street. don't even talk to me about raising taxes until i know you're serious about cutting medicare, cutting medicaid, cutting social security, cutting defense, cutting these long-term debts. these long-term programs that are going to cripple us. we've got to cut them to save them. so yeah, i'll tell you, as a republican, my first instinct is don't raise taxes. but if i know i'm dealing in good faith, bob, across the table with a democrat that's going to do the right thing on entitlements, do the right thing on defense spending, do the right thing on tax reform, i'll talk to you. >> you know what the next president whoever it is is going to have to kind of almost use the carter model of taking the

key people off to camp david, locking them up there like jimmy carter did with sadat to get the camp david accords and say, you're not coming out until we reach some sort of agreement. and you can't agree on all the details, but you can agree on a framework. >> there are so many reasons why that's a good idea. >> pardon? >> there's so many reasons why that's a good idea. >> yeah. >> one on one on a human level. >> no, one on ten. >> yeah. without the flood of washington around you, get them out of washington, get them together. go do things together. and get it done. >> really quickly, just a footnote to history there, talking about camp david, i was talking to dr. brzezinski a couple of weeks ago. you know what i never realized about camp david? i had no idea begin was a pol. he was polish. i had no idea.

you had two polish guys sitting there and dr. brzezinski and begin had the same background, they had the same sort of history even though dr. brzezinski was trying to drag begin, you know, more towards sadat. i thought that was a fascinating footnote. but they got together at camp david, and they were able to sit there and talk about things they had in common, this common history, and there was enough time. you're right, bob, because they were up there. they were playing chess. there's that famous picture of dr. brzezinski playing chess against begin. they had a chance to do a deal. >> and it was a great achievement. and i remember asking somebody, not dr. brzezinski about this who worked for carter, and i said, how did you do this? he said, look, if you, too, had been locked up at camp david with jimmy carter for 13 days, you would have signed it. >> exactly! exactly! and by the way, my dad plays chess with people, and he gets inside their head.

you know how they think. >> yes. >> if you know how they play chess. i'm terrible at it. >> that's one of the accomplishments of the last era. >> yeah. it was fascinating. fascinating time. >> that reminded me of a famous lloyd george joke when he was asked later why versailles was such a colossal failure. he said if you were sitting between jesus christ and napoleon, you wouldn't be able to get much done either, would you? 13 days with jimmy carter would do it, right? >> they should bring carter back. i'm sure he would do it, go off with people. >> special envoy carter. >> this is possible. it's not impossible. >> sure it is. >> but people are going to have to be -- go to a level of honesty that is not in our political campaign, and that's, you know, that's appalling and upsetting. >> all right. we're going to do the polls in the next block because chuck todd will be joining us. >> great statewide polls that actually show trends going mitt

romney's way in a couple of key swing states. >> fascinating times. next, obama deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter joins us live from denver. also joining us from denver, nbc news political director chuck todd. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. welcome aboard! [ chuckles ] ♪ [ honk! ] ♪ [ honk! ] ♪ [ honk! ] ♪ [ male announcer ] now you'll know when to stop. [ honk! ] the all-new nissan altima with easy fill tire alert. [ honk! ] it's our most innovative altima ever. nissan. innovation that excites. ♪

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♪ now, tomorrow is the first of three debates between myself and president obama. and i'm looking forward to having a serious conversation with my opponent about the issues. and as you may have heard, i've also prepared a few zingers for the occasion. for example, when we greet each other on stage before the debate, i'll put my finger on obama's tie and i'll say, hey, there's something on your tie. and then when he looks down, i'll slide my finger from his sternum right up to his nostrils and i'll say, boop.

ha, ha, ha. ha, ha, ha, ha. i've also been working on some that's what she said zingers. for instance, when obama is talking during the debate, i'll just interrupt him and say, that's what she said? ha, ha, ha. gets them every time. ha, ha. now, last week my campaign leaked a memo telling everyone to lower their expectations for my performance in these debates because as we all know, barack obama is an extremely gifted speaker. he might even say he's a master debater. that's what she said? ha, ha, ha. zing. you got zing. you got zing. >> that's what she said? oh, my god, i love him. all right. here with us now from -- >> that's what she said. >> here with us now from denver, we're going to go over the polls now. nbc news chief white house correspondent and political director and host of "the daily rundown." let's start with the battleground poll released this morning, and it shows where the

race stands in three key states. we'll start with ohio, virginia and then florida. in ohio, the president has opened up an eight-point lead among likely voters. however, in virginia, the president's lead has shrunk to just two points within the margin of error. last month president obama led virginia by five points. and in florida, romney has closed the gap. he's now statistically tied with the president. last month romney trailed in florida by five. >> so, you know, chuck, the trends seem to be going mitt romney's way in these swing states. ohio still stubbornly remaining in the obama category. you look at some of the other swing states, colorado, nevada, those may be tightening up. we shall see. we may have a situation where mitt romney has to run the table if ohio stays in the obama category, but the tightening in florida, the tightening in virginia, that has to happen if mitt's going to win, right? >> reporter: that's right. look, if we really wanted to

take our battleground map and put it into sort of the true sort of closest swings, you would say it's florida, colorado, nevada and virginia with maybe wisconsin at number five of the five. you know, the problem for mitt romney is if you cede, say, iowa and new hampshire, then the president is sitting at 266. so there's your inside. but guess what? it's doable and that's the thing. yeah. >> let me stop you there. so mitt romney could lose new hampshire, iowa and ohio and still win. but does that require him to pick up wisconsin? >> reporter: yes, that also require -- it means -- it requires wisconsin. and it requires wisconsin, north carolina. so if you were to go in order, sort of the way i would rank them as sort of romney's best-to-worst shots, north carolina, florida, colorado, nevada, wisconsin and then virginia, then wisconsin. >> okay.

so chuck, again, not to get too deep into this, but if you take ohio and iowa and new hampshire out, of those states you mentioned, i'm a republican, so i still believe a rising tide lifts all boats, if this race gets closer, if mitt romney does well, then he's probably going to pick up, if he does better, virginia, north carolina, florida, colorado and nevada. that's my opinion. nobody else's. that's mine. wisconsin, though, isn't that still sort of stubbornly also in the obama camp? >> reporter: the midwest, in general, yes. the best numbers i hear is somewhere between three and six. the fact is, it is tighter than iowa or ohio. and how do you know? the president originally was going to leave denver after the debate and go to columbus, ohio. well, now they're going -- they're leaving the debate and they're going to madison, wisconsin, on the way back to washington. i think that tells you everything you need to know about where they think wisconsin is and where they think ohio is.

so, look. i'm with you, joe. the midwest, in general, wisconsin, ohio, iowa, all has been a problem for romney for a while. and i think, you know, we could talk about it as the class issue. we could talk about it as 47%. but it all is actually a very similar issue. with the sort of working-class vote there, he has had problems. and he's had problems -- he had problems during the primaries in those states, right? in all three of those states in some form or another. this has been a struggle for him the whole time. if he doesn't get there, i think we'll look at sort of the midwest rust belt band of states and say, that's where he truly failed to connect. >> you know, i was inarticulate, i guess. the better way to say it is, if this race tightens by a couple of points, bob, the states that would be most likely to tip over into the romney camp would be virginia, north carolina, florida, colorado and nevada. wisconsin still would be a tough one. that would still be a reach. but the fact that he could win this without winning ohio, new

hampshire and iowa, still is pretty remarkable. >> it's out there, but i want to pull back. you have to cover the polls. the polls are part of the news. but the average person who's going to watch the debate tonight is not sitting there, oh, how are they going to vote in wisconsin or ohio? >> it's no fun to talk about polls, bob. >> i'm sorry. >> you're going into sam stein territory now. don't talk policy. we're falling asleep. >> what's the average person thinking about? they're saying, i'm going to watch these debates. and i remember in the 1990s once asking john mccain, is it possible? and he actually asked the question, is it possible to run for president and be true to yourself? he ran for president, and a lot of people would say he wasn't true to himself. i asked him a couple of months ago, what's the answer to that question? and he said, "i don't know." the average person watching these debates is looking for

straight talk and authenticity, not what's going to happen in some other state or their state. what they're looking for is a projection that is of the true self, the true candidate. >> yep. the truth. chuck todd, give us a sense of your takeaway of the national polls. >> reporter: well, what you see is -- >> right track/wrong track and the trends we're seeing in this poll. >> reporter: internally, when you look at everything of the poll other than the head-to-head, you sit there and say, wow, mitt romney's got problems. the right track is moving, 57% say the economy is recovering. highest right track we've had in 3 1/2 years. the president's job rating sitting at 49%. among registered voters, his lead is bigger. hispanics, he's up to 70% of hispanics. then you look at our likely voter model, and it's just three points. why? there is still an enthusiasm gap. you still have this issue. republicans by about a ten-point

margin claim more interest in this election than democrats. and that has helped -- it's why you see, in all these likely voter surveys, why the margin is sort of when you look at registered voters, it's sort of like there is a lot more potential voters out there for barack obama. he's had a harder time getting them motivated. and that's why in these likely voter models you're seeing republicans are definitely more enthusiastic. that's an issue. and i think if you look particularly at two groups for the president, latinos and you look at young voters, particularly the hispanics, he's getting 70% in our poll. but they're down by 12 points as far as enthusiasm. so the net effect is the same. so he's getting the same amount of hispanic help this time as he got four years ago. if he wants to truly take advantage of that, he's got to get hispanics more fired up. >> chuck, it's sam. two questions for you. one is, why is ohio not, in your estimation, a lean obama state at this juncture in all the polling news? and secondly, in what states

with early voting do you think another candidate's going to actually have a real advantage and get out to a lead that might be insurmountable on election day? >> reporter: well, i'm not sure that -- i'm not sure we would talk about ohio. i mean, i sort of -- let's see if anything moves after the first debate. i think this is going to be an interesting question for the romney campaign in a week. if the ohio numbers don't move, there is a strong case to be made. joe, you and i walked through this path, that he's got a path to 270. al gore had to make this decision in 2000. do you pull out of ohio? do you take the beating that you'll take for a day or two going oh, my god, you've pulled out of ohio just like al gore did in 2000. guess what? al gore made the right call. he almost pulled it off. some think he did pull it off by taking all those ohio resources, pouring them into florida, pouring them into michigan, pouring them into pennsylvania. does a dollar in ohio wasted versus a dollar in colorado

versus a dollar of extra money in a wisconsin? that's going to be an interesting, i think, decision that the romney campaign -- it's business -- that they may have to make in a week. if you see no movement there. as far as your early vote question, iowa, in particular, democrats have had this advantage. you know, they won iowa early because of early voting in 2000. bush did a better job of it in '04. and they were able to squeeze it out. i do think that that's the place where you see where can early voting sort of put a state away and make it a lot harder on election day? iowa, i would single that out more than any other. >> chuck, that is a great analysis. and that is really, mike barnicle, a decision that the man who's so great with data is going to have to make. mitt romney has made these decisions his entire life. he's been great at doing it for other companies. the question is, do you pull out of ohio soon so you can invest in virginia, where he knows he can win? invest in north carolina where

he knows he can win? invest in nevada where he knows he can win? invest in colorado where he knows -- and he has to win these states? do you pull the money out of there and say you know what? i'm going to bet on getting 272 electoral votes. i don't care what the press says about me for three days about pulling out of ohio. i'm going to pull an inside straight, and we're going to double down on wisconsin, baby. and if we win virginia, north carolina, florida, colorado, nevada and wisconsin -- and by the way, five of those six states, as mark mckinnon will tell you, very doable. if a republican doesn't win those state, they're out of it. but double down on wisconsin and go to your strengths in those other states, it's a big risk, but you're still president of the united states at the end of the day. >> joe, that all makes imminent sense, what you're saying and what chuck was saying, if it's mitt romney talking to ed gillespie, but romney's problem, i think, would be if he pulled out of ohio, would be with his donor base going forward. i mean, they're already pretty

shaky, given the past two or three weeks and given the 47% coverage. what happens to his donor base going forward after the announcement became public that he has pulled out of ohio? that would be a big concern. >> reporter: gore did. gore had to go through with it. and you know what? i remember labor went appe apaplectic, and it turned out to be the right call. business is business. >> first of all, labor is not going to go crazy. and here mark mckinnon, you've got a lot of businesspeople investing in romney. if romney makes a smart move and these are the states i can win and i'll still be president if i win them. they'll understand that. >> i think that is a clear, smart strategic choice. >> yeah. >> and they've got a clear plan and a path to victory. and they're making a tough decision.

>> that's fascinating, chuck. >> see you at 9:00 for a special edition of "the daily rundown." >> reporter: every one is special. >> also in denver, we have obama deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter. stephanie, how are you doing this morning? >> good morning. it's freezing out here. >> all right, stephanie, we've got bob woodward with us, and he has the first question. bob? >> hi. how are you? >> hi, bob. >> hi. big question. could the debates change the election? are they that important? >> absolutely. you know, i, eight years ago, was on the kerry campaign. and john kerry came into that first debate and changed the entire dynamic of that race. we were eight points down. and we came out of the debates tied or even a little bit ahead. so absolutely, debates are very important. it's the first time that voters really get to see these two candidates side by side. and to compare not just their styles, because i know a lot of people will be talking about style tonight. but really their visions.

the details, the specifics, where they want to take the country. how they're answering some of these tough questions, and whether they're giving real answers. so absolutely. i think mitt romney has an opportunity to shake up the race tonight. you know, obviously, you know, expectations, both sides have been playing the expectations game. the reality is that challengers win the first debate more often than not. you know, you might think that's me playing expectations, but that's also a fact. and we know that mitt romney is a good debater. the president's a pretty good debater, too. we want a good, substantive conversation tonight. if romney puts those details on the table, those specifics he's been holding back on, maybe he can change the dynamic of this race. >> mark mckinnon. >> hi, stephanie, mark here. i suspect your boss will be asked this tonight, but let me ask you, the vice president yesterday said that the middle class was buried during the last four years. how do you respond to the vice president's remarks from yesterday? >> well, if you look at what the vice president said and what he's been saying on the campaign

trail is that the middle class has been buried by the exact same policies that mitt romney and paul ryan want to go back to. you know, you shouldn't be cutting taxes for those at the top and asking the middle class to pay for it. you shouldn't be undoing reforms on wall street that will prevent another taxpayer bailout. those are the exact policies that crashed our economy in the first place. and that's what mitt romney and paul ryan are promising to take us back to. that's what the president -- the vice president was communicating on the stump yesterday. he's been doing that for months. >> i've been a little distracted with baseball over the past four years. who's been president? >> i know. >> since 2009, though? >> uh-huh. >> you can't blame the last four years on george w. bush, can you? >> we're absolutely not doing that. in fact, we're taking credit for the 5.1 million private sector jobs that have been created over the past four years despite being handed the worst economy since the great depression. we're taking credit for the million jobs that were protected under the president's efforts to save the auto industry, or

increasing manufacturing jobs for the first time in decades. so absolutely, we're not blaming, you know, our predecessor, by any means. but we don't think we should return to the same policies that crashed the economy. >> exactly. stephanie cutter, by the way, good job competing with chuck todd sitting next to you. >> say hi to chuck todd yelling right next to me. >> i know, he's right next to me. >> good luck there. >> we appreciate it. so mark mckinnon, they do have a problem, actually, the buried remarks over the past four years, that's -- i mean, you heard stephanie saying, well, actually, we've created all these new jobs. that seems to go against the argument that the middle class has been buried over the past four years. >> well, i think raets the real question. and what that remark says and what we may see tonight is people refocus on that question. how have i done during the last four years? i think people are going to really start to think about that tonight and the last four weeks and what are the policies that may make things better? you were just pointing out there's some indicators out there, auto sales are up, beer

sales are up, home sales are up. >> that may not be an indicator. that may be a bad one. >> obama in his role is leader of this country has not fixed the problem. and i would wait -- >> there has been growth. >> i love chuck todd in all of these numbers, in his polls, in his analysis. and i would bet a lot of money that for every one person who's trying to decipher those poll p there are about 10,000 people who are going to watch the debate to see who these people are and what they project and what their answers are. we are in a world of judgment on leadership, personality, projection, authenticity. that's what it's about, i think, to the average voter. >> it's about that to the average voter, but also, you can see where the average voter is going if you look at the polls. i can tell you, i didn't look at the snapshots before an election and say a month out oh, i've got this won or lost, but i sure as

hell looked at trends. and if i see the right track going a certain way or if i see virginia tightening up while ohio stays distant, if i see, you know, florida tightening up, you can see how different regions of the country are moving. >> but that does matter. >> it does. and what movement is based on what the media tells voters. and if you take somebody like john heilemann, the great john heilemann, "game change" one coming, "game change" two. i did a thing at the "y" with him last week. and he said the coverage of the campaign by the media is terrible. it's focused on the wrong issues, the daily food fight, the poll obsession, and we are not telling people who the candidates are. you know, there's a real problem of we are measuring our own coverage. and if the coverage, according

to john and i think a lot of people would agree, is not good, are we doing our job? >> it's going to be great, though, because beer sales are up. >> are up. coming up, former national security adviser under president carter, dr. zbigniew brzezinski joins us next on "morning joe." [ female announcer ] ready for a taste of what's hot? check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic.

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welcome back to "morning joe." a foggy day in washington. and mike barnicle's asleep. or reading the paper or something in new york. gosh. look at him! it's ridiculous. >> they gave him a lounge chair. seriously? look at that. >> it's embarrassing. >> what are you going to do? >> all right, sam stein and bob woodward still with us. joining us, former national security adviser for president carter, dr. zbigniew brzezinski,

author of "strategic vision." >> we've got a debate tonight, dr. brzezinski. we just have to go back, it's too rich, 1976. where were you when gerald ford famously declared that the soviets were not occupying poland, and how high was the chair that you fell out of when you heard it? >> listen, i didn't fall out of a chair. i started elevating. i was with the president, the subsequent president, the president who won the election in san francisco. and the moment gerald ford said that, i thought the debate was over, basically. because we had an issue that we could hammer away at immediately. and it showed to the public that the president wasn't quite entirely, president ford, on top of the issues. >> and he wouldn't correct it for a long time. >> that's right. >> and that was -- if he had just come out and said, oops, i made a mistake like everyone, but he would not do that.

>> i think the error would have stood, but you're right, he would have mitigated it. >> he refused. hey, let's talk about libya. there are a lot of complaints that the white house -- >> there's accusations, even. >> there are accusations they're covering up, that me missed the rising threat in libya of al qaeda. they mischaracterized the attack. what's your take on what happened in libya? >> i'm not sure i know enough about it. i'm not sure the administration knows enough about it. the place is messy. but is that a surprise to anyone? there was a strange government that collapsed in a pool of blood. and now we see the aftermath. and the aftermath always is protracted. we have the same problem on a much different and a bigger scale in egypt. we are developing such a problem, we're being confronted by such a problem increasingly in syria. tell me who is the opposition in syria? we are all concerned about the problem, the loss of life, the killings. we know who assad is.

the united states says he should go. who's the opposition? you tell me. >> which is the same question we were asking in libya before gadhafi fell. >> so we're dealing here with a messy region which is increasingly slipping into increased instability, a region in which american domination is rapidly, rapidly coming to an end. we have to face that fact. and a region which on top of it is faced with a potential war. we have a prime minister of a country that has 200 nuclear weapons decides to attack preemptively iran, which may be building nuclear weapons. and then we become engaged, and then, of course, the world economy goes pot. and then forget all of these debates about medicare. >> it's always so much fun to have you in here. >> it is. so we don't know who the opposition is in syria. we didn't know who the opposition was in libya. let's talk about who the leader is in egypt. we're trying to get our arms around morsi, and he waited a

little bit longer than the white house would have liked to condemn the attack on the u.s. embassy. what are you hearing? what are your contacts hearing? what are your contacts telling you about this new leader? >> i think we have to understand that first of all egypt has its own political culture. it is a serious country with debt and an outlook and self assurance. self assurance is very important because a lot of what we are seeing is a consequence of insecurity and fear. from what i understand mr. morsi is an intelligent and moderate leader of the muslim brotherhood. let's not get carried away about rhetoric with the incident and the reactions and the killings. the point he makes is not all that invalid.

it is not an issue of freedom of speech entirely. it is also a sure responsibility. if you were to yell fire in a theater and 20 kids would stand it was a gag on your part you would not be acquitted on the basis of freedom of speech. there is some indication that there was a conspiracy involved here. people who produced the film remain anonymous. a guy with a strange name in california and another guy who specializes in attacking groups, a crazy pastor in florida who likes to provoke the muslims produce a movie. who paid for it? how was it financed? why are they keeping quiet about it? what was its intent? just to amuse? no.

clearly to provoke violence and killings. isn't that a conspiracy. i would like us to take a more explicit position to the muslim world. we are not going to condemn this but if there are evil forces at work trying to provoke violence between us and you we have the obligation to investigate and crack down. >> to add to the list of trouble spots, pakistan, what is going on there? we haven't heard much about it recently but we still have what 70,000 troops in afghanistan. there is scenarios they are going to get out in 2014 or sooner. what is going to happen there? >> i think probably an extension of the mess. pakistan is a combination of 21st century armed forces with nuclear weapons. >> lots of them. >> roughly in 19th century

democracy like the british and the top and the bridges within have suited democratic process and roughly 15th century society based on tribal loyalties. it is an amount that is very fragile. and once we are out of afghanistan the pakistan issues will become more important and probably the factor in intensifying rivalry between china and india because pakistan is sort of an a ally. >> the death of the american ambassador in benghazi is now in american politics. in 1979 the seizure of the embassy in teheran was a part of huge conflict in that election. can you speak to the difficulty of intelligence gathering and

analysis during a fluid and violent situation as occurred in teheran and libya? >> that is a good point. everyone on the outside assumes the decision maker is rich and well organized government as the americans know everything that is going on and should know ahead of the events taking place. the fact of the matter is in most of the situations you are dealing with very uncertain information, rapidly changing information. it is very difficult to have a clear picture. when we go to benghazi we know it is a messy situation. we haven't had a government in charge of libya since the collapse of gadhafi. i'm glad he is gone. the fact of the matter is the after math is messy. we were in the midst of a regime that was modernizing iran

without sensitivity. and then a religious fanatic came to power. i was in favor of keeping him out if necessary by force. someone in the state department told the president it is like the equivalent of an indian gandhi. >> we will not mention that state department person. >> my lord. >> carter at the time gave the famous statement that iran is an island of stability. >> that was before. >> and then -- >> unstable. >> we didn't have you there reporting. >> exactly. >> we had an arrangement regarding iran that we were not to conduct intelligent operations with iran.

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good morning. it's 8:00 a.m. on the east coast. 5:00 a.m. on the west coast. back with us on set in washington. we have a lot to talk about. the first presidential debate now just a matter of hours away. i think it will be a great one. we have new battle ground polls

released that shows where the races are standing in the key states, ohio, virginia and florida. let's go to the general poll and in ohio let's look at these numbers. president obama still comfortably ahead. he is in 51. mitt romney is at 43%. both campaigns think this one is getting more difficult by the moment for mitt romney to win. however, in virginia the president's lead has shrunk two points within the margin of error. last month president obama led by five points there. in florida mitt romney has closed the gap, as well. he is now statistically tied in the state of florida. it is a one point lead. 47% to 46%. it is fascinating. ohio seems to be on its own as far as the swing states go.

we can show other swing state polls in colorado and nevada and north carolina. these states are really getting tight to such a degree that a great performance by romney tonight could change the dynamic. >> i don't think it is quite that close yet. you certainly see an issue in florida and virginia. wisconsin it looks like it is widening. iowa is 4-6. and the problem by taking michigan and pennsylvania off the table which the romney people have done you have to almost run that table. you can't afford just to win florida and north carolina. >> we are showing iowa an eight point spread. north carolina also is in the margin of error. and then you have colorado a five point spread. you have done this. nevada a two point spread. some of the races are bunching up but you have run a campaign

before. no republicans have won without ooohio. if mitt romney loses ohio we are still a month out if he loses oohio he has to do what george w. bush did in 2000 and run the board. >> it is headed the right direction. >> he can do it. >> late september early october 2000 we were down three to five points. george bush went on to win all three debates and was up three. it is absolutely possible. i think this is big stakes. tonight is a huge debate. huge for all the reasons. >> there are a lot of people that have heard a lot of romney and haven't seen it. tonight they will get to see him all alone. i think it is a real opportunity for them to get a sense of who

he is and who he believes. they are going to see it tonight. >> there is also an opportunity because you are writing a column that the president isn't that great in debates. you talked about sometimes he seems a bit too arrogant. when i see him in debates i think he is thinking i'm too good. you want me to narrow my answers down. i'm really way above this, fellows. >> two things would be game changers tonight if barack obama says you are likable enough, mitt. or if mitt romney says i will bet you 10,000. it is interesting. i somewhat disagree with mark. i looked at debates from 1960 on. what is remarkable is how little bit has changed. in 2004 everybody is taking on all three of those.

>> i got it right here. the only debate where there was movement beyond two or three points from the start to the end was 1976. jerry ford moved ten points. it doesn't have the effect that people think it has. i think there are five things that make a difference. conventions matter a lot, where you are going in, the kind of campaign you run and the media. >> i disagree with it. do you think debates don't have an impact or do you think tonight could if mitt romney comes out? >> i think that's really when the american people see the two candidates and start to make their minds up. >> first of all, i think there is a consensus that no matter what polls we are looking at it

is going to be a jump ball election. it will be within two or three points. i think tonight's debate matters. >> so you do think it's still going to be a jump ball because obviously mitt romney has had a horrific september. his people would say what a horrible month but we still have a long way to go. >> i do. >> i agree with you. >> two elements that polls can't get to, the level of anxiety about daily life and the immediate future of our economy and the level of disappointment in barack obama held by obama supporters who will vote for him but are still disappointed in him. those two things will result in a jump ball election. to the debate tonight i think it will be important for mitt romney. the reason i think it will be important for mitt romney is

very few of us have an understanding of the ripple effect of the 47% comment that has been reported and reported and reported out there in the country. this is going to be the first time that many americans, most americans are actually going to see mitt romney on the stage with the president of the united states and will have to figure out does he understand us. he said 47% of us are basically bust outs. does he really understand my life. this is going to be their shot at getting a peek at that. for that reason i think this debate is very important for mitt romney. >> i think debates are so great for candidates because they can talk without the filter of all of us theying what this means or what that means. mitt romney, you look at mitt romney he has been portrayed as this 47% guy and a lot of faux

pass that he has made. i remember 1980 and i bring this up to you because you were not born in 1980. but ronald reagan people forget ronald reagan was painted as a loony right wing fanatic that would start world war iii and it was a debate that stuck a needle. >> i wasn't born yet. >> fascinating number from t"wal street journal" said what people heard and read made them think more negatively about him. clearly the 47% comments have resonated. this provides them a chance to say that guy you saw on the video, that is not me. he can reset.

i'm sort of with al on this. i spent a lot of time watching the debates. in 2002 i watched every single debate. >> you should get a life. >> what makes it worse is how young he is. >> i want to finish his point. >> you are too much of a loser. >> he didn't do that exceptional of a job. he managed to eke it out in the end. and he ended up winning by being portrayed as a victim in that debate. >> let me go to mike. i remember in real time when we were looking at romney's debates. we have been critical of romney from time to time. i remember time and time again

at the republican debates you and me both saying that guy won it. it wasn't just because a lot of people were drooling and couldn't remember their last names. mitt romney won a lot of those debates and he did a pretty good job. >> first of all, joe, sam, call comcast cable and get the baseball package. >> i have the baseball package. i would rather watch the 2002 gubernatorial debates. >> mitt romney oddly enough is most comfortable in the debate setting. >> i think he is. >> he is more comfortable in the debate setting than he is at chipotle as we saw yesterday and almost every day. he is very good at it. and he has worked on it. >> he is a lot better than he was in 2008.

>> no doubt. >> and by the way, those debates did make a difference. >> i wrote a book on that campaign. i did reread the 1980 -- >> don't make fun of al then. >> that was a debate one week before the election. >> going into it they were about even. ronald reagan lost most of that debate. jimmy carter was attacking and then he had the brilliant close about are you better off. he did it so well. clearly reagan had a lower threshold. he had to prove to people he was acceptable. >> you are describing mitt romney. ronald reagan did not have the kind of negatives that mitt romney has today. he did not have 51% of people

have an unfavorable view. you can say mitt romney is as good of a debater all you want. when it comes to charm and having people say i don't want to have this guy on television for four years -- >> following up, the one thing that mitt romney has going for him is who he is running against. there are a lot of republicans that voted for barack obama that are disappointed. there are a lot of independents who are disappointed. there are a lot of conservative democrats who voted for barack obama who are disappointed. they don't want to vote for him this year. we have seen a lot of bumbling inside the romney camp. if he turns that corner just like reagan did in 1980 mitt romney can give all of these voters an excuse to vote for him, right? >> we talked about this yesterday on the show. if he can go on -- that is why i worry about zingers.

don't come in with can jokes. be who you are which is the lining i saw in his convention speech. i want to help you and your family. i'm not fancy. i'm not exciting. i want this job because i can do a better job healing the economy than he has done in the last 3 1/2 years. if he can do that and be confident and don't try to be slick and funny and that's not who you are. just be mitt romney and he'll have a good night. >> we will hear about the 47% from barack obama tonight. he will bring that up. i think mitt romney will bring this up in the debate, something that was spoken yesterday in charlotte, north carolina by our dear friend joe biden. >> the romney/ryan tax plan will raise taxes on middle class families with a child, one or more children, by an aadditional

$2,000 a year. all kidding aside with all the boos we can stop that malarkey. this is deadly earnest. how they can justify raising taxes when the middle class has been buried the last four years, how in lord's name can they justify? >> god bless him. >> has anybody told him the middle class has been buried? >> i am being deadly earnest now. how anyone can attempt to bury

the vice president is beyond me. >> i got a good laugh out of it. >> you think we might hear the middle class has been buried. >> that is fresh and new and relevant. >> just look at the general mood of the country again which is difficult and the right and wrong track. the wrong track numbers is 53% thinking we are heading in the wrong direction. in theory most of those should be up for grabs for romney. you would think the guy in charge is responsible. romney has an opportunity for that kind. >> we have the nbc general poll. this number jumped out at me. if you were here i think you would have a tear coming out of the corner of your left side. sam stein has written three pages of notes. it makes me sad. go home. >> future generation.

>> we need to get you together with john heilman. he can put that 2002 debate -- what do you have there? >> i have to compose myself. >> 57% of the respondents said the economy is moving in the right direction. 39 said the wrong direction. this was two weeks ago. i don't get why all of a sudden people are so optimistic about the economy. it happened in a flash. >> it could be the bill clinton speech. >> the metrics haven't changed much. i think bill clinton was able to say things that barack obama couldn't say. he inherited a mess and making

it better. >> when we come back it kraig shirley joins us and michael duffy is here. but first here is a check on the forecast. the weather story this morning has been the fog. it has been very dense around philadelphia and new york city. earlier it wasn't that good over reagan international airport. the delay so far has been limited to philadelphia northwards into the new york city airport. here is our fog advisory. all of the new york saelt and philadelphia. airport delays in newark. la guardia two hours away. those airports have those issues. it will begin to ripple across the country. after the fog lifts it will be a warm day. still a few showers in new

england and maybe a stray thunderstorm. the october temperature forecast. we have big changes sweeping through the eastern half of the country. much cooler air starting today in the northwest. the exception is going to be all of the west coast. we are going to stay nice and warm. the bottom line this is the last warm dry day for the midwest. enjoy it. this is the warmest day you have until the spring. [ male announcer ] for the saver, and a big first step.

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here with us now kraig shirley. michael duffy, the coauthor of the president's club. michael is here to reveal the latest issue of "time" magazine which i think might -- it is a question that might suvl itself tonight. reveal. >> the cover is about the facts for us. who is telling the truth in this campaign and the point that arrives. and, in fact, it is not one or the other. romney comes at us with a

baseball bat and tells bigs one. obama works with a stiletto. it is a darker art. >> it is like where bob woodward says the terrible republicans are going to cut medicare and then woodward says barack obama says we have to cut medicare. we look at the 20 whoppers. what is the top obama whopper? >> i think what he says more than anything else that for example that romney was theorig original outsourcer of jobs at bain. that was a powerful message on the campaign trail. >> what about romney? what is romney's? >> he says if things continue

we'll no longer have a free market economy. that is kind of hard to believe. >> a bit of an overstatement. >> voters want to believe these things especially on right and left. even when you present the facts to them they don't actually -- >> so tonight we have the back and forth on the facts. let's talk about the debate tonight. what does mitt romney have to do not just to win over the conservatives and get them excited but what conservative message does he have to give to the american people that will get the swing voters like reagan got them in '80 and '84. the two most important debates was 1960 the first kennedy/nixon debate where kennedy defied the expectations that he was a rich light weight playboy and won the debate as much as nixon lost it. in 1980 reagan defies

expectations because people -- there was a character that the carter campaign created of him of a nuclear cowboy. it is none of those things. >> carter also was asking about nuclear war. >> what romney has to do is forget the nonsense about it being about himself. if you are a 65-year-old man you are not comfortable in your own skin you never will be. he has to talk to the american people. he has to have a conversation with the american people and get them to see him as a president. >> has he? >> no he has not. >> why not? >> his convention speech he has run a personality campaign and nobody is going to out

personality barack obama. >> for romney to just breakthrough what looks like an increasing race in which he has fewer chances to change the dynamics. obama has to just not make it and he wins. this is a tough situation for a challenger particularly on the first debate. the pressure is on domestic policy. and so this is in some ways the most important hour left in the race. >> would you agree with that? this is mitt romney's moment? >> he has to breakthrough. the problem is for him is that if obama does well and romney does well then it is the status quo and the status quo favors obama. >> you don't think it is a little bizarre that we put so much weight into an hour and a half where they are delivering prepared lines? we have a build up to the campaign and then we turn and say we have an hour and a half. >> it is an hour and a half

unfiltered. we get lies in 30 second ads. we get lies -- >> step up. >> they have been preparing to deliver specific lines in specific ways. >> it is -- >> you can go back to 1960 but there is some substance. 1960 you had nixon sweating in 1976. you had jerry ford talking about the soviet union not in poland. there is one example after another of how these debates did make a big difference. >> and it would appear, i don't want to put undue pressure on them but given the state and nature of the campaign we have had thus far with both candidates refusing to talk in substance and specifics about

things like medicare and afghanistan which is barely mentioned at all, the moderator's role tonight might be really, really key. >> if this is all we get as a country, the ads, the stories in the ads which turn out not to be true and then 35 minutes or 40 minutes of what might be genyn and spontaneous maybe the whole thing doesn't work very well. on the other hand there is no interest in changing it. >> it puts a lot of pressure to say let's do something different. let's try something different and call out the lack of it. >> ronald reagan won because the

americans became comfortable with him. it is not the specifics as much as americans getting the chance. over 90 minutes you can look at a guy and say he gets it. or he doesn't get it. >> that's what i'm going through. a lot of dynamics at play in the 1980 campaign. first of all the expectations were not being played out in 1980. and the expectation was very high for carter especially since his performance in '76. >> they become more sanitized than the old days. >> carter is much lost in his way and won it with his information wasn't nearly as good as ronald reagan where he crystallized the argument. the american voter was ready to

fire at jimmy carter although he was still ahead in the polls as of that morning but they weren't ready to hire ronald reagan not until he made the case that he was worthy. >> there were a lot of americans who were unhappy with barack obama and voted for him four years ago. they don't know if they want to hire the other guy. >> maybe how much give and take there is and truth telling that goes on between moderator and candidate. does he have it? does he get it? do i still like him or like this guy? so many people are undecided. really small number, maybe 1/3 undecided. >> at the end of the day that's the biggest challenge for mitt romney and why he has to do so well in this first debate because fewer undecideds than in

1980 and '96. the early voting has begun and begun in ohio and iowa. it has begun across america. this isn't like 1980. when i talk about on friday it was 50-49. i ended up winning four days later 62% to 38%. you can do that swing even in '94. you can't do it now. >> reagan is campaigning in new york in october something unheard of today. carter is campaigning in california and texas in october, something unheard of today. so it was a far more fluid situation then than it is now. >> it won't be this late again next time. they will have this debate in september. it doesn't make sense to have them in october anymore. >> thank you very much. when we come back a

legendary sports caster joins us. keep it right here on "morning joe." ♪ ♪ [ multiple sounds making melodic tune ] ♪ [ male announcer ] at northrop grumman, every innovation, every solution, comes together for a single purpose -- to make the world a safer place. that's the value of performance. northrop grumman. check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic.

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that's another story. >> we don't like to talk about that as yankee fans. >> there is a bigger message in the book which is overcoming odds be it a cultural or racial. >> i will make an admission. when i wanted to write the book i wanted to write a book called

craziest moments in sports. the publisher said they wanted this book. i cringed. i said are you going to pay me? so i started writing this thing and realized there was a bigger message that you can overcome. it is black and white and all kinds of ethnicities and countries of oregons and handicap origins s althea gibso is forced to ride the back of the bus and then next thing you know she is shaking the hands. and th and then you have the very first game in the little league is a

no-hitter. >> he is incredible. do you have a favorite that jumps out at you? >> i think the miracle on ice is so memorable. people do remember where they were when it occurred. i was there in lake placid. >> were you there? >> it was a stunning, stunning moment. >> people forget about the iran hostage crisis and how america was beaten down. these were college kids. you can't have that replicated because it is nhl stars in the olympics. the kids beating the big bad russians. and then that was for the gold medal. it wasn't. >> it didn't hurt to have the great call to accompany that. >> i always won with that. i said i wonder if they called that on tape. i have it on absolute --

>> it was live, one of the great calls in the history of sports casting. >> do you believe in miracles? >> the book is the greatest moment in sports upsets and under dogs. brian sullivan next on "morning joe." [ male announcer ] let's say you need to take care of legal matters.

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8:48 in the morning. brian sullivan is across the river. >> it is orange. >> virginia tech. >> orange. >> hokey tie to mourn my 2-2 season. >> i think you got dressed in the dark. >> i did get dressed in the dark. let's move on from that. tonight, jobs and the economy are the number one topic of the debate. on friday we have the official governmental monthly jobs numbers probably the biggest economic report that we get every month here across the river at global hq. today we got the adp jobs numbers, the private company that provides payrolls to millions of americans. that number was good.

162,000 jobs created through adp last month. it is the third month in a row it is a surprise to the upside. it hasn't necessarily corps r e correlated. apple according to mysterious people familiar wst situation is reportedly starting assembly of a smaller ipad. it has a 7.8 inch screen. they would be going right after the kindle. if the phone is too small and the ipad is too big it is the goldilocks tablet. >> this is like one of those red siren alerts. as red as brian's tie. you have to be excited about this. >> that is bright red.

>> right away. >> that's great. >> tie gate. we'll be back in a moment.

presidentialal debate in denver. the mile high matchup. the thriller between chocolate and vanilla.

>> zingers. zingers. because americans need to know that their leader has a well honed sense of zing. on day one our new president must be able to face iran's leader and ask him if the place where he bought that shirt also has a men's department. and then maybe some smack. when he gets around on embargo he gets around an embargo. [ female announcer ] ready for a taste of what's hot? check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic.

check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic. time to talk about what we learned today. i learn a lot about you. >> i learned how to prepare and take notes. write everything down and you get made fun of. >> i feel quite comfortable that it was on my side in historic wars making fun of people like sam. >> that is what i learned. there is no better night for sam stein to get a four pack and